According to @AltcoinDaily, traders are asking whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December 2025, and positioning should track official inflation and labor data alongside fed funds futures pricing for confirmation, source: @AltcoinDaily; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics; CME Group. The Federal Reserve has stated that decisions hinge on core PCE inflation and employment trends, making the BEA’s PCE releases and the BLS’s jobs data the primary inputs to watch for policy shifts, source: Federal Reserve Board Monetary Policy Report; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics. Market-implied odds around the December meeting are inferred from fed funds futures and summarized by the CME FedWatch Tool that many traders use to monitor policy probabilities, source: CME Group FedWatch Tool. Easier policy typically lowers real yields and financial conditions, historically supporting risk assets and high-beta segments such as BTC and ETH through reduced discount rates and cheaper funding, source: Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report; Federal Reserve Economic Data. For trade execution, monitor the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield, the dollar index DXY, and crypto market liquidity and funding conditions, since falling 2-year yields and a softer dollar have coincided with stronger crypto performance during easing cycles, source: U.S. Department of the Treasury; ICE Data Indices for DXY; Kaiko market liquidity data. Near-term catalysts that can shift December expectations include the PCE price index release and the next FOMC statement and Summary of Economic Projections, which directly guide the policy rate path and risk sentiment, source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve Board.

According to @rovercrc, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates this week has risen to 100%, indicating markets are positioned for an imminent policy cut (source: @rovercrc). Market-implied FOMC odds are commonly tracked via the CME FedWatch Tool, which derives probabilities from Fed funds futures pricing (source: CME Group). Fed policy shifts are key drivers of USD, Treasury yields, and liquidity-sensitive assets like BTC and ETH, with easing generally associated with looser financial conditions and risk-asset support (source: Federal Reserve). Into the decision window, traders typically monitor DXY, the U.S. 2-year yield, BTC perpetual funding rates, and options implied volatility to gauge positioning and potential volatility around the statement and press conference (source: CME Group; Federal Reserve).